The Amman Talks: Another Exercise in Futile Diplomacy

Prof. Efraim Inbar
Perspectives Papers No. 162, February 1, 2012

The recent Israeli-Palestinian "pre-negotiations" in Amman mark another ineffectual endeavor to bridge the wide gap between the two sides. The Palestinians were quick to accuse the Israelis of bad faith, while still refusing to accept Israel as a Jewish state. Furthermore, as Hamas becomes emboldened by the "Islamic Winter," Israeli-Palestinian reconciliation seems impossible.

Missile Warfare: A Realistic Assessment

Haim Rosenberg
Perspectives Papers No. 161, January 25, 2012

The threat to Israel of missile warfare is somewhat exaggerated and public discourse on this issue should reflect realistic assessments. At this stage, missile attacks would be able to inflict only limited physical damage on Israel. Moreover, future military campaigns are unlikely to be limited to missile attacks – thus, the argument “land and type of terrain are unimportant in the missile age” is a dangerous fallacy.

The Iranian Nuclear Threat to Israel: Legal Remedies and Remaining Options

Dr. Louis René Beres
Perspectives Papers No. 160, January 16, 2012

Israel should not expect stable coexistence with a nuclear Iran. Instead, it must enhance active defense, improve nuclear deterrence and target selected Iranian infrastructures. As Tehran edges closer to gaining nuclear capabilities, however, Israeli preemption tactics are becoming far more limited.

Strategic Realignment and Energy Security in the Eastern Mediterranean

Dr. Alexander Murinson
Perspectives Papers No. 159, January 9, 2012

Since the cooling of relations with Ankara in 2010, Israel has sought alternative allies in the Mediterranean region, courting Greece and Cyprus. An economic and security partnership between the three non-Muslim countries in the eastern Mediterranean benefits all. The most urgent strategic issue that unites them, however, is their need for energy security. The recent discovery of substantial natural gas fields in the Israeli and Cypriot Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) challenge Turkey’s claim as the central energy hub for Europe. Turkey is employing threatening rhetoric as well as its navy to deter and harass Cypriot and Israeli exploration efforts. Greece, Israel and Cyprus should increase their strategic cooperation in order to contain such Turkish hostility.

The Palestinians are Part of the Old Arab Order

Prof. Hillel Frisch
Perspectives Papers No. 158, January 5, 2012

The Palestinians are part of the old Arab order because time and time again they have aligned themselves with the worst dictators of the Arab world. Their own governments in the West Bank and Gaza are cut from the same cloth as the regimes of the old Arab order; they are one-party police-states where the opposition and the media are suppressed. They demand the right to self-determination for themselves but deny it to others. They are also part of the old Arab order of terrorism.

Palestinians: Invented People

Prof. Michael Curtis
Perspectives Papers No. 157, December 20, 2011

The concept of Palestinian identity and nationalism is a recent invention. Both historically and in contemporary times, the Arabs living in the area now known as Palestine were regarded both by outsiders and by their own spokespeople as members of the greater Arab population, without a separate or distinct identity. Today, however, it is clear that Palestinian nationalism has emerged and become a political factor.

The Threats in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea

Prof. Efraim Inbar
Perspectives Papers No. 156, November 24, 2011

The turmoil in the Arab world is changing the strategic landscape around Israel. However, one area that has received little attention is the eastern Mediterranean basin, where elements of radical Islam could gain control. In this region, Libya, Egypt, Lebanon, Syria and Turkey display Islamist tendencies, leaving Israel and Greece as the only Western allies.

Egypt’s Constitutional Crisis: The Military versus the Islamists

Prof. Hillel Frisch
Perspectives Papers No. 155, November 16, 2011

Controversy has arisen over who will shape Egypt's constitution – the Islamists or the military-backed secularists. While the former seemingly holds the majority public vote, the latter holds the fire power, thus evening out the political battlefield. But if the chasm between these two opposing camps continues to widen, as may occur due to the recent controversy, civil war could erupt.

The IAEA Report on Tehran’s Nuclear Program: It's Time to Hit Iran

Prof. Efraim Inbar
Perspectives Papers No. 154, November 10, 2011

The recent IAEA report reaffirms suspicions that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons. While this might generate an additional round of sanctions on Iran, these are unlikely to bring about change in Iran's nuclear policy. Israel will soon face a difficult decision on whether to deal a military blow to Iran's nuclear installations – unless the US lives up to its superpower responsibilities. A US strike on Iranian nuclear infrastructure is not only necessary, it is also the only course of action that can prevent the impending American retreat from Iraq and Afghanistan from signaling the denouement of US clout in the Middle East.

Saudi Succession and Stability

Dr. Joshua Teitelbaum
Perspectives Papers No. 153, November 1, 2011

The smooth succession of royals is crucial to the stability of the Saudi oil state. Ever since King Faysal, the Saudi monarchy has alternated branches of the family on the throne in order to maintain a degree of balance between competing royal family factions. This principle is likely to hold true today too, as the kingdom navigates its way from the rule of King Abdullah and the now-deceased Crown Prince Sultan to the rule of Crown Prince and next king, Nayif. The process of balancing and satisfying royal factions depends on patience and conservatism within royal circles. It also requires quiet in the streets of Riyadh and Jedda – and thus far, there are no signs of the so-called ‘Arab Spring’ spreading to Saudi Arabia.

Why the Schalit Decision Makes Military Sense

Prof. Stuart A. Cohen
Perspectives Papers No. 152, October 27, 2011

The Schalit prisoner exchange was a rational and sensible recognition of the need to reaffirm society's commitment to the welfare of its soldiers. The injunction to “leave no man behind,” which has been internalized by all Western armies, reinforces the mutual commitment that soldiers and their governments make to one another. The obligation of the state is even more pronounced in Israel’s case, as the IDF is a conscript army, in which far from all draft-age youngsters in fact serve.

מערכת ההגנה האקטיבית "כיפת ברזל" בפעולה: הערכה ראשונית

עוזי רובין
Perspectives Papers No. 151, October 31, 2011

מערכת ההגנה האקטיבית נגד רקטות "כיפת ברזל" הופעלה לראשונה באפריל 2011 בהצלחה טכנית ברורה. רק לאחר ההצלחה הראשונה של "כיפת ברזל" החלו בכירי מערכת הביטחון לחשוף את המניעים הבסיסיים, את התכליות האסטרטגיות ואת מגבלות המערכת. כמו כן, הורחב הויכוח הציבורי שהתמקד באיום על ישובי שדרות ומעטפת עזה, לדיון באיום אפשרי עתידי ובהגנה מטווח רקטות ארוך יותר על ערים גדולות יותר בעומקה של מדינת ישראל. ניתן להסיק שמערכת כיפת ברזל הניבה את התפוקות האסטרטגיות שהותוו: שמירה על חיים ועל נכסים כלכליים במדינה, מתן דרגת חופש לדרג המדיני, והענקת מרווח נשימה לצה"ל להתכונן למהלך התקפי על-ידי הגבלת הלחימה עם חמאס בעזה.

Iron Dome in Action: A Preliminary Evaluation

Uzi Rubin
Perspectives Papers No. 151, October 24, 2011

The "Iron Dome" anti-rocket active defense system was first used by Israel in April 2011 with great technical success. This prompted defense officials to finally make public the strategic objectives and limitations of the system, which, until then, had not been divulged. It also expanded the public debate on missile defense from one that focused on the threat to Sderot and the Gaza envelope communities to a debate that included the threat of longer range rockets on larger cities deep within Israel. It can reasonably be concluded that the Iron Dome system has succeeded in saving lives and reducing damages, thus providing more flexibility to the political leadership for containing the fighting with the Hamas government in Gaza.

Two Steps Forward, One Step Back:
Women's Suffrage in Saudi Arabia

Dr. Joshua Teitelbaum
Perspectives Papers No. 150, October 9, 2011

Saudi Arabia has not been immune to the demands for change sweeping the Arab world. On September 25, 2011, King Abdullah announced that within the next few years women would be appointed to the Consultative Council and be allowed to vote and run for the municipal councils. But is this a significant advancement for Saudi women's rights, or just another instance of the kingdom’s "two steps forward, one step back" reform policy?

Needed: A Leader in the White House

Prof. Eytan Gilboa
Perspectives Papers No. 149, September 13, 2011

The cornerstones of US President Barack Obama's Middle East strategy have collapsed. Turkey, once an exemplar moderate Islamic democracy, and Egypt, once an exemplar stable and moderate Arab power, have become increasingly unreliable allies. The lack of leadership and clear policy principles evinced by the Obama White House have severely weakened America's position in the Middle East, leaving a void to be filled by hostile regional powers such as Iran.

After September Comes October

Prof. Efraim Inbar
Perspectives Papers No. 148, August 23, 2011

The decision to cut off negotiations with Israel and go to the UN in September to bid for state recognition is not going to bring the Palestinians closer to the establishment of a state. The UN is a morally bankrupt institution, totally ineffective in curing the dysfunctional Palestinian national movement. Israel, however, is united and strong enough to meet the challenge of Palestinian unilateralism.

Empty Words: Saudi Blustering and US-Saudi Realities

Dr. Joshua Teitelbaum
Perspectives Papers No. 147, July 17, 2011

The Saudis are truly angry at the Obama Administration, and are threatening to turn away from their alliance with Washington. But the Saudis are all bark and no bite. Despite occasional public “outrage” from Saudi officials about US policy regarding the Arab unrest, Israel, Iraq, Iran, or Afghanistan, Riyadh and Washington are still very distant from the parting of the ways threatened by some Saudi officials.

Get Tough with Turkey

Prof. Efraim Inbar
Perspectives Papers No. 146, July 14, 2011

Turkish demands are unreasonable and an apology will not change the anti-Israeli policy of an increasingly authoritarian and Islamist Turkey. Israel’s reluctance to criticize Erdogan’s government is construed as weakness and Jerusalem should take off its gloves in dealing with Ankara.

Halting the Egyptian Drift

Jagdish N. Singh
Perspectives Papers No. 145, June 19, 2011

Developments in post-Mubarak Egypt are beginning to mirror the process of Islamization that took place in Iran following the 1979 revolution. The Muslim Brotherhood is gaining support, while progressive forces – those that hoped to bring democracy to Egypt – have fallen silent. It may be up to a third party to prevent Egypt from becoming the next Iran.

Gulf Monarchies Confront the “Arab Spring’”

Dr. Joshua Teitelbaum
Perspectives Papers No. 144, June 12, 2011

The events of the “Arab Spring” are still unfolding, but for the monarchies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), this “spring” offers little promise. The threat emanating from Iran as well as the lack of confidence in US support gives the Gulf states much to fear and has imbued the GCC with newfound unity and purpose. Recent bids by Morocco and Jordan for membership in what has been, until now, a Persian Gulf organization signifies that the conservative monarchies of the Middle East are determined to protect the status quo in the face of shifting alliances brought about by regional developments.

Netanyahu Turns Centrist and Triumphs

Prof. Efraim Inbar
Perspectives Papers No. 143, May 30, 2011

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu went to Washington with a centrist message, eliciting great support for the Israeli position both by the US Congress and by the Israeli public. He parried the attempts of President Obama to extract additional concessions and signaled to the world, specifically to the Palestinians, that their expectations about the shape of a future agreement must be calibrated in accordance with the wishes of the Israeli electorate. As a result of this visit, Netanyahu has strengthened his political positioning and garnered popularity at home.

Towards Responsible Sovereignty

Dr. Amichai Magen
Perspectives Papers No. 142, May 29, 2011

The rise of a globalized Islamist insurgency and armed non-state actors – some of whom, like Hizballah, command more fire power than most national governments – represents a real challenge to the international system. Specifically, the use of proxies who fight from within the territory of weak or failed states is pernicious in that it defies the conventional categorization of armed conflict, blurs state responsibility for armed attacks, and undermines deterrence. This reflects a deeper crisis – a crisis of sovereignty.