הקרב בין "כיפת ברזל" לבין ה"גראד": חזרה כללית לקראת מלחמה כוללת?

מאת עוזי רובין
Perspectives Papers No. 171, April 19, 2012

מאמר זה מנתח את הקרב שבין הרקטות מעזה לבין מערכת "כיפת ברזל", מעריך את המהלכים הפלסטינאים לנטרול מערכת ההגנה הישראלית, ואת ההשלכות של ההצלחה על יכולתה של ישראל לעמוד במתקפת טילים איראנית. המסקנה היא כי ההצלחה של "כיפת ברזל" מוכיחה אמנם את הישימות הטכנית ואת המשמעויות האסטרטגיות של היכולת להציב הגנה משמעותית על מרכזי אוכלוסייה ומתקני תשתית, אך אין להשליך מכך כי מדינת ישראל תוכל בעת הזו להגן על אוכלוסייתה בפני תקיפת טילים כוללת ממדינות העימות.

Is Turkey Getting Dragged into War with Syria?

Dr. Can Kasapoğlu
Perspectives Papers No. 170, April 18, 2012

Since the first wave of uprisings in Syria, Turkey has gradually hardened its stance toward the Baathist dictatorship. However, as Assad continues to weather the rebellion while strengthening ties with the PKK terrorist group and with a nuclearizing Iran, Ankara fears a reemergence of the threatening strategic landscape of the 1990s. As the turmoil in Syria continues and the security environment of Turkey worsens, two factors might lead to unilateral Turkish military intervention in Syria: a refugee crisis that forces Ankara to establish a buffer zone within Syrian territory, and/or defensive military measures needed to stop PKK terrorism.

After Toulouse: Combatting Anti-Semitism in France

Dr. Tsilla Hershco
Perspectives Papers No. 169, April 4, 2012

France's formal, coercive, educational, and correctional measures against anti-Semitism should not be underestimated, and have largely borne fruit. Yet the country's unbalanced approach to the Arab-Israeli conflict, as reflected occasionally in government condemnations of Israel's legitimate measures of self-defense and in media coverage of the conflict, has created an altogether too comfortable environment for the resurgence of anti-Semitic violence in France, including the recent attack in Toulouse.

India Defies Oil Sanctions on Iran

Prof. P. R. Kumaraswamy
Perspectives Papers No. 168, March 19, 2012

India’s position on oil sanctions against Iran has become a riddle that defies conventional explanations. The odds are heavily loaded against its ability to maintain energy ties with the Islamic Republic, yet there are signs that India seeks to improve economic ties with Tehran. The explanation for this is that American inability to provide effective leadership in the Middle East has resulted in India’s readiness to defy the oil sanctions against Iran. India seeks to assert an independent foreign policy.

The Opportunity in Gaza

Prof. Efraim Inbar and Dr. Max Singer
Perspectives Papers No. 167, March 15, 2012

Israel has to respond to the attacks from Gaza with a large-scale military operation. If no such action is taken, the attacks against Israel will surely increase. Gaza is small enough so that Israel can destroy most of the terrorist infrastructure and the leadership of Hamas, Islamic Jihad and other organizations. The goal would be to restore deterrence and to signal Israeli determination to battle the rising Islamist forces in the region. By acting now in Gaza, Israel will also greatly reduce the missile retaliation it would face if and when it strikes Iran’s nuclear facilities. Political conditions seem appropriate as Hamas is divided, most of the Arab world is busy with pressing domestic issues, and the US is in the middle of an election campaign.

Stopping Iran: Still Too Much Noise and Too Little Action

Prof. Eytan Gilboa
Perspectives Papers No. 166, February 21, 2012

There seems to be a lot of psychological warfare at play in the approach of international leaders to the Iranian nuclear conundrum. Public statements of various tones and intensity have of late been made by Israeli, American, European, and even Iranian policymakers. Yet, mixed messages are continuously being broadcast and international powers remain disunited on how to halt Iran’s nuclear program. It is unsurprising then that all of this “talk” has led to no action.

The Republican Primaries and the Israel Acid Test

Dr. Jonathan Rynhold
Perspectives Papers No. 165, February 15, 2012

Changing security conditions demand a revaluation of the strategic and economic roles of the Israeli defense industry. In its earlier years, the Israeli government sought to achieve self-sufficiency and reduced reliance on defense imports. Today, however, the Israeli defense industry is largely focused on arms exports to the global market, with insufficient attention paid to the IDF’s military technology and equipment needs. It is time for a new balance between boosting private enterprise (arms sales abroad) and ensuring Israel’s military edge (supply of the IDF).

Strategic and Economic Roles of Defense Industries in Israel

Dr. Yaacov Lifshitz
Perspectives Papers No. 164, February 13, 2012

Changing security conditions demand a revaluation of the strategic and economic roles of the Israeli defense industry. In its earlier years, the Israeli government sought to achieve self-sufficiency and reduced reliance on defense imports. Today, however, the Israeli defense industry is largely focused on arms exports to the global market, with insufficient attention paid to the IDF’s military technology and equipment needs. It is time for a new balance between boosting private enterprise (arms sales abroad) and ensuring Israel’s military edge (supply of the IDF).

Might the Turkish Military Intervene in Syria?

Dr. Can Kasapoğlu
Perspectives Papers No. 163, February 8, 2012

With Russia and China vetoing a UN Security Council resolution seeking an end to the violent repression in Syria, there are almost no options left for a negotiated end to the crisis. This may bring Turkey to consider military intervention in Syria in coordination with the US and Saudi Arabia.

The Amman Talks: Another Exercise in Futile Diplomacy

Prof. Efraim Inbar
Perspectives Papers No. 162, February 1, 2012

The recent Israeli-Palestinian "pre-negotiations" in Amman mark another ineffectual endeavor to bridge the wide gap between the two sides. The Palestinians were quick to accuse the Israelis of bad faith, while still refusing to accept Israel as a Jewish state. Furthermore, as Hamas becomes emboldened by the "Islamic Winter," Israeli-Palestinian reconciliation seems impossible.

Missile Warfare: A Realistic Assessment

Haim Rosenberg
Perspectives Papers No. 161, January 25, 2012

The threat to Israel of missile warfare is somewhat exaggerated and public discourse on this issue should reflect realistic assessments. At this stage, missile attacks would be able to inflict only limited physical damage on Israel. Moreover, future military campaigns are unlikely to be limited to missile attacks – thus, the argument “land and type of terrain are unimportant in the missile age” is a dangerous fallacy.

The Iranian Nuclear Threat to Israel: Legal Remedies and Remaining Options

Dr. Louis René Beres
Perspectives Papers No. 160, January 16, 2012

Israel should not expect stable coexistence with a nuclear Iran. Instead, it must enhance active defense, improve nuclear deterrence and target selected Iranian infrastructures. As Tehran edges closer to gaining nuclear capabilities, however, Israeli preemption tactics are becoming far more limited.

Strategic Realignment and Energy Security in the Eastern Mediterranean

Dr. Alexander Murinson
Perspectives Papers No. 159, January 9, 2012

Since the cooling of relations with Ankara in 2010, Israel has sought alternative allies in the Mediterranean region, courting Greece and Cyprus. An economic and security partnership between the three non-Muslim countries in the eastern Mediterranean benefits all. The most urgent strategic issue that unites them, however, is their need for energy security. The recent discovery of substantial natural gas fields in the Israeli and Cypriot Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) challenge Turkey’s claim as the central energy hub for Europe. Turkey is employing threatening rhetoric as well as its navy to deter and harass Cypriot and Israeli exploration efforts. Greece, Israel and Cyprus should increase their strategic cooperation in order to contain such Turkish hostility.

The Palestinians are Part of the Old Arab Order

Prof. Hillel Frisch
Perspectives Papers No. 158, January 5, 2012

The Palestinians are part of the old Arab order because time and time again they have aligned themselves with the worst dictators of the Arab world. Their own governments in the West Bank and Gaza are cut from the same cloth as the regimes of the old Arab order; they are one-party police-states where the opposition and the media are suppressed. They demand the right to self-determination for themselves but deny it to others. They are also part of the old Arab order of terrorism.

Palestinians: Invented People

Prof. Michael Curtis
Perspectives Papers No. 157, December 20, 2011

The concept of Palestinian identity and nationalism is a recent invention. Both historically and in contemporary times, the Arabs living in the area now known as Palestine were regarded both by outsiders and by their own spokespeople as members of the greater Arab population, without a separate or distinct identity. Today, however, it is clear that Palestinian nationalism has emerged and become a political factor.

The Threats in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea

Prof. Efraim Inbar
Perspectives Papers No. 156, November 24, 2011

The turmoil in the Arab world is changing the strategic landscape around Israel. However, one area that has received little attention is the eastern Mediterranean basin, where elements of radical Islam could gain control. In this region, Libya, Egypt, Lebanon, Syria and Turkey display Islamist tendencies, leaving Israel and Greece as the only Western allies.

Egypt’s Constitutional Crisis: The Military versus the Islamists

Prof. Hillel Frisch
Perspectives Papers No. 155, November 16, 2011

Controversy has arisen over who will shape Egypt's constitution – the Islamists or the military-backed secularists. While the former seemingly holds the majority public vote, the latter holds the fire power, thus evening out the political battlefield. But if the chasm between these two opposing camps continues to widen, as may occur due to the recent controversy, civil war could erupt.

The IAEA Report on Tehran’s Nuclear Program: It's Time to Hit Iran

Prof. Efraim Inbar
Perspectives Papers No. 154, November 10, 2011

The recent IAEA report reaffirms suspicions that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons. While this might generate an additional round of sanctions on Iran, these are unlikely to bring about change in Iran's nuclear policy. Israel will soon face a difficult decision on whether to deal a military blow to Iran's nuclear installations – unless the US lives up to its superpower responsibilities. A US strike on Iranian nuclear infrastructure is not only necessary, it is also the only course of action that can prevent the impending American retreat from Iraq and Afghanistan from signaling the denouement of US clout in the Middle East.

Saudi Succession and Stability

Dr. Joshua Teitelbaum
Perspectives Papers No. 153, November 1, 2011

The smooth succession of royals is crucial to the stability of the Saudi oil state. Ever since King Faysal, the Saudi monarchy has alternated branches of the family on the throne in order to maintain a degree of balance between competing royal family factions. This principle is likely to hold true today too, as the kingdom navigates its way from the rule of King Abdullah and the now-deceased Crown Prince Sultan to the rule of Crown Prince and next king, Nayif. The process of balancing and satisfying royal factions depends on patience and conservatism within royal circles. It also requires quiet in the streets of Riyadh and Jedda – and thus far, there are no signs of the so-called ‘Arab Spring’ spreading to Saudi Arabia.

Why the Schalit Decision Makes Military Sense

Prof. Stuart A. Cohen
Perspectives Papers No. 152, October 27, 2011

The Schalit prisoner exchange was a rational and sensible recognition of the need to reaffirm society's commitment to the welfare of its soldiers. The injunction to “leave no man behind,” which has been internalized by all Western armies, reinforces the mutual commitment that soldiers and their governments make to one another. The obligation of the state is even more pronounced in Israel’s case, as the IDF is a conscript army, in which far from all draft-age youngsters in fact serve.

מערכת ההגנה האקטיבית "כיפת ברזל" בפעולה: הערכה ראשונית

עוזי רובין
Perspectives Papers No. 151, October 31, 2011

מערכת ההגנה האקטיבית נגד רקטות "כיפת ברזל" הופעלה לראשונה באפריל 2011 בהצלחה טכנית ברורה. רק לאחר ההצלחה הראשונה של "כיפת ברזל" החלו בכירי מערכת הביטחון לחשוף את המניעים הבסיסיים, את התכליות האסטרטגיות ואת מגבלות המערכת. כמו כן, הורחב הויכוח הציבורי שהתמקד באיום על ישובי שדרות ומעטפת עזה, לדיון באיום אפשרי עתידי ובהגנה מטווח רקטות ארוך יותר על ערים גדולות יותר בעומקה של מדינת ישראל. ניתן להסיק שמערכת כיפת ברזל הניבה את התפוקות האסטרטגיות שהותוו: שמירה על חיים ועל נכסים כלכליים במדינה, מתן דרגת חופש לדרג המדיני, והענקת מרווח נשימה לצה"ל להתכונן למהלך התקפי על-ידי הגבלת הלחימה עם חמאס בעזה.

Iron Dome in Action: A Preliminary Evaluation

Uzi Rubin
Perspectives Papers No. 151, October 24, 2011

The "Iron Dome" anti-rocket active defense system was first used by Israel in April 2011 with great technical success. This prompted defense officials to finally make public the strategic objectives and limitations of the system, which, until then, had not been divulged. It also expanded the public debate on missile defense from one that focused on the threat to Sderot and the Gaza envelope communities to a debate that included the threat of longer range rockets on larger cities deep within Israel. It can reasonably be concluded that the Iron Dome system has succeeded in saving lives and reducing damages, thus providing more flexibility to the political leadership for containing the fighting with the Hamas government in Gaza.

Two Steps Forward, One Step Back:
Women's Suffrage in Saudi Arabia

Dr. Joshua Teitelbaum
Perspectives Papers No. 150, October 9, 2011

Saudi Arabia has not been immune to the demands for change sweeping the Arab world. On September 25, 2011, King Abdullah announced that within the next few years women would be appointed to the Consultative Council and be allowed to vote and run for the municipal councils. But is this a significant advancement for Saudi women's rights, or just another instance of the kingdom’s "two steps forward, one step back" reform policy?

Needed: A Leader in the White House

Prof. Eytan Gilboa
Perspectives Papers No. 149, September 13, 2011

The cornerstones of US President Barack Obama's Middle East strategy have collapsed. Turkey, once an exemplar moderate Islamic democracy, and Egypt, once an exemplar stable and moderate Arab power, have become increasingly unreliable allies. The lack of leadership and clear policy principles evinced by the Obama White House have severely weakened America's position in the Middle East, leaving a void to be filled by hostile regional powers such as Iran.

After September Comes October

Prof. Efraim Inbar
Perspectives Papers No. 148, August 23, 2011

The decision to cut off negotiations with Israel and go to the UN in September to bid for state recognition is not going to bring the Palestinians closer to the establishment of a state. The UN is a morally bankrupt institution, totally ineffective in curing the dysfunctional Palestinian national movement. Israel, however, is united and strong enough to meet the challenge of Palestinian unilateralism.

Empty Words: Saudi Blustering and US-Saudi Realities

Dr. Joshua Teitelbaum
Perspectives Papers No. 147, July 17, 2011

The Saudis are truly angry at the Obama Administration, and are threatening to turn away from their alliance with Washington. But the Saudis are all bark and no bite. Despite occasional public “outrage” from Saudi officials about US policy regarding the Arab unrest, Israel, Iraq, Iran, or Afghanistan, Riyadh and Washington are still very distant from the parting of the ways threatened by some Saudi officials.

Get Tough with Turkey

Prof. Efraim Inbar
Perspectives Papers No. 146, July 14, 2011

Turkish demands are unreasonable and an apology will not change the anti-Israeli policy of an increasingly authoritarian and Islamist Turkey. Israel’s reluctance to criticize Erdogan’s government is construed as weakness and Jerusalem should take off its gloves in dealing with Ankara.

Halting the Egyptian Drift

Jagdish N. Singh
Perspectives Papers No. 145, June 19, 2011

Developments in post-Mubarak Egypt are beginning to mirror the process of Islamization that took place in Iran following the 1979 revolution. The Muslim Brotherhood is gaining support, while progressive forces – those that hoped to bring democracy to Egypt – have fallen silent. It may be up to a third party to prevent Egypt from becoming the next Iran.

Gulf Monarchies Confront the “Arab Spring’”

Dr. Joshua Teitelbaum
Perspectives Papers No. 144, June 12, 2011

The events of the “Arab Spring” are still unfolding, but for the monarchies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), this “spring” offers little promise. The threat emanating from Iran as well as the lack of confidence in US support gives the Gulf states much to fear and has imbued the GCC with newfound unity and purpose. Recent bids by Morocco and Jordan for membership in what has been, until now, a Persian Gulf organization signifies that the conservative monarchies of the Middle East are determined to protect the status quo in the face of shifting alliances brought about by regional developments.

Netanyahu Turns Centrist and Triumphs

Prof. Efraim Inbar
Perspectives Papers No. 143, May 30, 2011

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu went to Washington with a centrist message, eliciting great support for the Israeli position both by the US Congress and by the Israeli public. He parried the attempts of President Obama to extract additional concessions and signaled to the world, specifically to the Palestinians, that their expectations about the shape of a future agreement must be calibrated in accordance with the wishes of the Israeli electorate. As a result of this visit, Netanyahu has strengthened his political positioning and garnered popularity at home.

Towards Responsible Sovereignty

Dr. Amichai Magen
Perspectives Papers No. 142, May 29, 2011

The rise of a globalized Islamist insurgency and armed non-state actors – some of whom, like Hizballah, command more fire power than most national governments – represents a real challenge to the international system. Specifically, the use of proxies who fight from within the territory of weak or failed states is pernicious in that it defies the conventional categorization of armed conflict, blurs state responsibility for armed attacks, and undermines deterrence. This reflects a deeper crisis – a crisis of sovereignty.