Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies
Bar-Ilan University
Mideast Security and Policy Studies Number 33, June 1997
The Risks of Palestinian Statehood
Efraim Inbar and Shmuel Sandler
Reprinted with permission from
Survival
Volume 37, Number 2(Summer 1997):32-41
A Palestinian state is almost a fait accompli. Against this background a sober assessment of the risks of a sovereign Palestinian polity is warranted. The conclusion of this study lower the expectations that its establishment will bring about regional stability. The authors start with a description of the still-unstable and violent Middle East, in which the Arab-Israeli conflict has thrived for the past 50 years and into which the Palestinian state will be born. It is unlikely that this state will behave totally different from other Mideastern actors. Then, the authors move to an analysis of the domestic politics of the Palestinian entity and the ramifications of some of its features on its foreign policy. Palestinian politics contain many of the ingredients for domestic instability, foreign intervention and revisionist policies. Subsequently, the article assesses the foreign policy alignment choices of a Palestinian state and the high probability of its adopting a radical foreign policy. The next section delves into the strategic risks a Palestinian state may pose to its neighbors, and to the West. The main concerns are irridenta, threats to Israel and Jordan, and terrorism. The article ends with recommendations of how to limit the potential risks implicit in a Palestinian state and an assessment of their feasibility. It suggests to prolong the timetable toward establishing a Palestinian state, denying it control over critical strategic arena and limiting its sovereignty.